Woodmac: 2-degree Pathway Could Lead to 65% Drop in Upstream Gas Investments


Energy intelligence group Wood Mackenzie has said that a world on a 2-degree celsius pathway could significantly reduce upstream gas investments by 65% through to 2040, says Wood Mackenzie.

To remind, countries that signed the famous Paris Agreement in 2016, committed to working on limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Under Wood Mackenzie's base case outlook  - so no two-degree target - some 200 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bnboe) of new gas resource developments will be needed to meet demand through to 2040, which will require US$2 trillion of investment. However, a 2-degree demand scenario would see a dramatic drop in upstream gas investments.

Per Woodmac, major gas contributors include Qatar with its additional LNG mega trains, and the US, Russia and China. These countries combined currently account for almost half of the global gas supply. The ‘Big 4’ is expected to meet 60% of global gas demand by 2040.

Wood Mackenzie Asia Pacific vice president Gavin Thompson said: “We estimate almost US$2 trillion of capital is needed to deliver this growth in supply. However, a 2-degree demand scenario dramatically alters this outlook, with future supply requiring a more modest, though still considerable, US$700 billion of new investment as global gas demand peaks earlier.

"Sustainable investment is booming and investor activism on carbon has gone mainstream as more fund managers embrace ESG screening. This increasing scrutiny of gas’ carbon intensity is shaping investment decisions on future supply.”

Although gas’ low carbon intensity on burning makes it the cleanest hydrocarbon, LNG ranks amongst the most emission-intensive resource themes across the upstream sector. Significant emissions are released through the combustion of gas to drive the liquefaction process and any CO2 removed prior to entering the plant is often vented into the atmosphere, Woodmac says.

Senior analyst David Low said: “If we look at methane emissions, shale gas is immediately put under spotlight. With a carbon intensity at around 34 times that of CO2, the release of methane including intentional venting and unintentional fugitive emissions into the atmosphere is of rising concern to investors.

“However, the variable quality of methane emissions reporting, particularly for fugitive emissions, makes reporting challenging.”

Carbon pricing

Thompson said: “Reducing emissions is not about technology. Carbon, capture, use, and storage (CCUS) is used extensively in the US in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). It is about carbon pricing.

“The industry is at a critical juncture. Investors are demanding project returns stay attractive at lower oil and gas prices just as companies are looking to address multiple challenges on carbon. The global gas industry needs to respond, and soon.”

Three keys to a cleaner and more competitive gas supply

Wood Mackenzie believes developers and investors need to consider three key areas – investing in sustainability, increasing competitiveness, and embracing new sources of capital.

"Sustainability is becoming the mantra across the industry, with carbon mitigation and ESG increasingly at the heart of decision making. Some sustainability investments include reduction in venting, leakage and fugitive emissions, use of renewables to power LNG facilities, carbon offsetting, CCUS technology for high CO2 fields and liquefaction and partnering with end-users to reduce emissions," Woodmac says

To raise competitiveness, Woodmac says, future portfolios must be founded upon the best assets. Suppliers must continue to put pressure on costs, consider divestment and alternative ownership of assets, and develop innovative contracting and enhanced trading capabilities.

As gas markets evolve, so, too, will sources of capital, the company said.

"Non-traditional and more diverse investors and partners are creating opportunities for global gas players to push projects forward, while potentially also gaining access to growth markets. China, sovereign wealth funds and equity funding are some possible future sources of capital and ownership," Woodmac said.

Thompson said: “Gas has a bright future, critical to combating air pollution and transitioning the world to a net-zero future. Addressing emissions and exposure to carbon is vital. The gas industry of the future must become synonymous with ESG.”

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